As the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, Eurasia Group President and Founder Ian Bremmer has warned that the war will likely drag out longer, potentially bringing forth long-term regional disruptions and push for Iranian nuclear, even though the intensity of the US military is expected to wane in the coming days.
Speaking to NDTV Profit, Bremmer poured cold water over hopes of a swift resolution between Iran and US, even after two weeks of fighting.
"It's not going to end quickly," he said. "The reality is that even if the Americans end the war today, you're likely going to see more disruptions in the region. You're likely going to see terrorist attacks, some of which will be coordinated, some of which will be lone-wolf attacks, but will be seen as linked to Iran."
Bremmer believes the main factor that will drive the war for longer is a potential acceleration in Iran's nuclear ambitions, especially after the demise of its supreme leader.
"You're also likely to see a regime that is interested in developing a nuclear weapon as fast as possible. It was Supreme Leader Khamenei who was a brake on developing a nuclear weapon; his son does not clearly have such compunction. And that is important," he said.
"Right now, their enriched uranium stocks are untouched. The Israelis would like the Americans to lead a commando raid, which is quite dangerous, to take out that capability. They have not done so yet, so that's an open question," he added.
Bremmer further stated that Iran still possesses the "know-how internally" and the financial means to fund this push, pointing out that the U.S. has not targeted oil-revenue infrastructure like Kharg Island.
"For all of those reasons, it is hard to see a near-term conclusion that is successful in this war and makes us move on to the next thing. I think that this is going to be with us for quite some time," he said.
However, he predicted a near-term shift in battlefield dynamics due to military supply constraints. He predicted the American intensity to wane, although that might not necessarily lead to an end in war.
"Even though the American munitions that are available for this intensity of strike will largely be over within a few more days. By next week, we won't see the Americans having the capacity to engage in the strikes that you've seen in the last 12 days. So there will be a change in the pacing and the intensity of the war, but I don't think the war will be over," he concluded.
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