The consistent geo-economic disruptions caused by externalities like wars and Donald Trump's tariff spree has led to a slow down in most economies, including the United States, according to Aletheia Capital's Chief Economist Jim Walker.
In an exclusive interview with NDTV Profit, Walker pointed out that during the course of Trump's tariffs, uncertainty increased in the business world, and that the current conflict in the Middle East has prompted the same.
"When uncertainty increases in the business world, then plans are cancelled," he stated, adding that this ultimately leads to a cooling down of economic activity and global economy begins to move at a much lower rate of growth.
Highlighting that even America was not spared in this turmoil, Walker said, "The whole policy of Make America Great Again has produced 2.2% of GDP growth in 2025, lower than what it was in the last 15-20 years."
Addressing the looming fears surrounding recession, he remarked that recession has not happened yet. The economist also expects inflation to tick higher.
Notably, Walker also underscored that if the Middle East disruption continues, then crude oil prices will break through $200 levels globally. However, he hoped that this "very negative" scenario does not become a reality.
The economist also focused in on the AI spending splurge and said that the problem with AI investments is that most of these data centres are located in the Middle East.
"The problem with all the billions being spent is that a lot those data centres are located in the middle east. They need to keep supplying," Walker said
Talking about India Inc., he said that he expects them to increase their expenditure and added that oil undisrupted oil supply is crucial for these companies. Walker suggested that India can secure oil supplies from Russia.
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