The Strait of Hormuz has become a key focus of the Iran war, with Tehran and Washington repeatedly claiming the upper hand over the strategically important waterway. But recent shipping data suggests Iran may have lost some control of the strait, CNN reported.
More than 80% of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have used the Omani route, according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data, said the CNN report. The route is a UN-authorised shipping channel opposed by Iran.
Iran has attacked dozens of ships attempting to use the waterway along Oman's northern coast. Despite the risks, most vessels have continued using the route, encouraged by the promise of protection from US naval forces.
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“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, was quoted as saying.
According to a CNN report, the shift marks a sharp change from a month ago, when Kpler recorded virtually no shipping traffic through the Omani route. Reduced traffic around Iran's preferred route has also limited its ability to collect tolls from ships using the strait, as it did in the spring.
The expiration of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran this week theoretically allows Tehran to resume collecting tolls. However, Kpler data suggests it has not been able to do so.
“Iran's request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don't want to do and haven't been doing,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. “So the Oman route absolutely makes the most sense.”
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers to transport oil through the strait and transfer it to customer tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Some tankers have switched off their transponders for weeks to avoid Iranian attacks, creating so-called dark traffic that can be difficult for tracking services to monitor.
The US has maintained a significant naval presence in the area and reported higher oil shipping volumes than traditional estimates. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said combined oil shipments through the strait and rerouted around it totalled about 15 million barrels per day over a week, compared with a pre-war average of around 20 million barrels per day.
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President Donald Trump subsequently said the US has “total control over the strait”. However, continued Iranian attacks and lower-than-normal oil flows indicate that Washington does not have complete control either.
“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,' then I'd say they were never completely in control to start with,” said Pickering. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”
Oman and Iran are also holding talks to restore freedom of navigation without US involvement. Their impact on shipping and control of the waterway remains unclear.
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