The jet fuel shortage, triggered by the ongoing war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is disrupting global aviation, with Europe bearing the brunt.
The conflict has choked off key fuel export routes from the Middle East, sending shockwaves through the oil and aviation markets.
Airlines Cut Thousands of Flights
German carrier Lufthansa announced it will cancel around 20,000 flights through October, reducing its daily schedule by roughly 120 flights. The cuts affect major hubs including Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna, Brussels, and Rome.
Other carriers are also trimming operations. Budget airline Norse Atlantic Airways has reduced long-haul routes, including flights from Los Angeles. Meanwhile, US-based Delta Air Lines has lowered its expected capacity by 3.5%, citing cost pressures linked to fuel.
Europe Faces Critical Dependence on Imports
Europe consumes about 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel daily, importing roughly one-third of that supply. Around 75% of these imports-approximately 375,000 barrels per day-typically come from the Middle East. That flow has now nearly dried up, creating a severe imbalance.
With the global jet fuel export market relatively small at around 2 million barrels per day, replacing lost supply is proving difficult. The prices in Europe have already doubled since the conflict began.
Stockpiles Dwindling Fast
The International Energy Agency estimates Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining. Some analysts warn the situation could worsen sooner.
"Now they're no longer landing, and they're no longer departing," said David Doherty, head commodities analyst at BloombergNEF, referring to fuel shipments.
He added that while initial supplies continued arriving due to pre-war shipments, the pipeline has now effectively stopped. He estimates inventories could run out in four to five weeks.
Limited Alternatives, Rising Exports From US
Europe has started sourcing fuel from Africa and increasing imports from the US, which has nearly doubled its jet fuel exports to around 400,000 barrels per day recently.
However, this is not enough to fully offset the shortfall, especially as much of US supply is committed to neighbouring countries. Unusual supply routes are emerging. One tanker recently departed New York for Europe-an uncommon move-highlighting the severity of the shortage.
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Travel Impact: Higher Fares, Possible Disruptions
While American travelers are unlikely to face direct shortages, rising fuel costs could push up ticket prices globally. Travel to Europe, however, carries greater uncertainty.
"They're good to fly, I suppose," Doherty said. "I mean, unless it's to Europe and you can't refill on the way back, which is the whole issue."
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