Asian equities rose at the open after optimism that more tankers would be able to pass through the crucial Strait of Hormuz lifted gauges on Wall Street.
Shares opened higher in Japan, South Korea and Australia, lifting the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index by 0.8%. The dollar held steady after its biggest loss in more than a month, while Treasuries were little changed as Monday's dip in oil prices tempered inflation concerns.
Brent crude, however, advanced to about $102 a barrel early Tuesday, rebounding from a 2.8% drop in its previous session. US equity-index futures were also slightly weaker, suggesting the optimism seen at the start of the week may be beginning to fade.
Risk appetite was also boosted by expectations that major economies could release petroleum reserves to offset potential supply disruptions, after President Donald Trump renewed calls for allies to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz. Threats to flows through the vital shipping lane continued to fan inflation worries as investors brace for a slate of central-bank meetings this week.
“As the war with Iran continues, oil prices are dictating the mood and headlines from the Strait of Hormuz are driving markets,” wrote Bob Savage, head of markets strategy and insight at BNY. “Concerns for the week revolve around how central bankers see through these matters.”
On Monday, the S&P 500 notched its best day since February, led by technology shares. Nvidia Corp. climbed 1.7% after saying it expects to generate at least $1 trillion in revenue from artificial-intelligence chips through the end of 2027.
ALSO READ: Trump Calls Iran Paper Tiger, Says Countries Dependent On Strait of Hormuz Must Help US
Trump expressed his frustration with other nations that have so far been publicly noncommittal on his calls to help ensure vessels can transit the strait.
Later on Monday he said he had requested China — among those he's asked for support — to delay a summit with his counterpart Xi Jinping for about a month, saying it was important for him to remain in Washington to oversee the war.
“The possibility that the US-China meeting could be postponed by one month may also be taken as a sign that the war with Iran is likely to drag on longer than expected,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management. “That would weigh on equity markets.”
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, which recently agreed to a record release of emergency reserves, said it has more that can be made available if needed.
Asked if there were any tools to mitigate higher oil prices — beyond emergency reserves — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC it would depend on how long the war lasts. Bessent noted prices would be “probably much lower” than $80 in a couple of months' time.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced the likes of the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to reduce oil output further. Still, a trickle of vessels is beginning to find a way through the waterway.
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The yen is also in focus as it edges ever closer to the 160-per-dollar mark, reflecting investors' concerns around the nation's heavy reliance on imported energy. Traders expected the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates on hold in its policy meeting later this week, with a quarter-point hike expected only in July.
“Right now the yen will go to 160 and the BOJ cannot stop this weakening unless they hike rates,” said Ashwin Binwani, founder of Alpha Binwani Capital, who has bearish positions on Japan's currency against the greenback. “If the oil price doesn't go down in the next three months, the yen will go to 165.”
Elsewhere, a bond rally on Monday pushed Treasury yields four to six basis points lower across maturities. Investors will turn their attention to the Federal Reserve's rate decision Wednesday, with policymakers expected to hold rates steady as the war clouds the outlook.
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank also meet this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver a rate hike in Sydney later Tuesday.
“Until that time where the Strait returns to normal operations, risks to energy markets and the global economy will persist,” wrote Kyle Rodda at Capital.com. “The policy response to the crisis will begin to crystallize in the coming days as a massive week of central bank meetings commence.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 9:40 a.m. Tokyo time
- Hang Seng futures rose 0.6%
- Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 0.5%
- Japan's Topix rose 1.2%
- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was little changed
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1492
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 159.21 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8909 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.7065
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 1% to $74,991.73
- Ether rose 0.3% to $2,352.52
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.22%
- Japan's 10-year yield was unchanged at 2.265%
- Australia's 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.94%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $95.73 a barrel
- Spot gold was little changed
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