Even as geopolitical tensions rattle markets, Helios Capital's Dinshaw Irani is leaning into volatility rather than stepping back. In a conversation with NDTV Profit, Irani said his firm has been “proactively deploying cash,” signalling confidence that the worst of the current uncertainty may be nearing its end.
The trigger for recent market jitters — the Iran conflict — came at a particularly inopportune time for India. “Just when flows were returning and earnings growth was picking up, this hit,” Irani noted. Given India's position as one of the world's largest crude importers — bringing in nearly 5 million barrels per day — any spike in oil prices poses a direct macro risk.
Why The Worst May Already Be Priced In
Despite the disruption, Irani believes the conflict could be in its “endgame.” He points to a sharp drop in Iran's offensive intensity — from roughly 500 missiles a day earlier to about 10 now, and 800 drones to just 20 — as a sign that escalation may be losing steam.
For markets, that could mean relief on the oil front. While crude may not fall back to earlier lows of $60–65 per barrel, even a stabilisation around $70–75 would be a significant positive for India's macros.
Irani pushes back against the idea that the recent market recovery is merely a short-term relief rally. Instead, he argues that India was already in the early stages of a structural uptrend, supported by improving corporate earnings and demand recovery.
January and February, he notes, saw strong business momentum across sectors. While March has turned volatile due to global uncertainties, Irani expects growth to normalise from the April–June quarter — provided disruptions ease.
Midcaps, Consumption In Focus
Helios continues to favour mid- and small-cap stocks, betting that they will capture the next leg of growth. The firm's portfolio remains heavily tilted — 60–70% — towards domestic consumption themes, including consumer-facing financials and auto-linked plays.
Irani sees India at the cusp of a consumption-led cycle, driven by rising incomes and increased spending by younger demographics. “Velocity of money is picking up,” he said, drawing parallels with growth phases seen in economies like China and the US.
Despite recent volatility, Helios has not seen significant redemptions and continues to deploy inflows into high-conviction ideas. The strategy remains unchanged: focus on domestic growth, lean into corrections, and avoid overreacting to global shocks.
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