The Titan story continues to unfold. It has been around 40 years plus now that the company has been around but it came to attention of most people after it became a favorite of big bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. So much so, that the stock and his name became interchangeable!
More recently, we have a documentary on the company (The Titan Story, web-series on Prime) that has now brought the history of the company into people's lives. Those who haven't watched it should do so-a brilliant adaptation of the book by author Vinay Kamath (2018).
Not many people know that Titan stock price went through some very trying times until about 2001 (low price Rs 1.35 only!!). This was the period of trials and tribulations for the company and, as the documentary shows, they stuck it out through thick and thin and turned things around. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala actually entered the stock only in 2003-04 period and that was actually some really farsighted bet. It went on to become his greatest investment ever.
As can be seen in the chart (quarterly log), the price journey of Titan has been brutally relentless! That is a 25-year uptrend that shows no signs of faltering! Except for the market collapse of 2008, the stock has had no big reactions, making it one of the best 'buy and hold' stocks ever!
Small wonder then that the Big Bull never lost a chance to sing its praises in whatever platform he was on!
Did the fundamentals of the stock move so relentlessly too? Not really. But the company kept showing its alacrity in adapting to business trends, entering fresh areas that were quite challenging at that time, like the organised retail jewelry business in 1994 with the opening of Tanishq stores. In and through the years, the company entered into a number of collaborations, buyouts, etc. with brands like Favre Leuba, MontBlanc, etc.
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The market always remained bullish about the stock (partly because of the Big Bull and also because of consistency in performance) and often accorded high PE valuation to the stock (averaging 50-60x) which was quite high a decade or more ago. When business plunged in 2020 Covid times, it once traded at an astronomical PE of nearly 195 times!
But the way the company pulled up its breeches after the Covid time, spotting tremendous opportunities and weakness among competitors, led to a glorious revaluation of its prospects and started the next golden period in its history. In the last five years or so, its EPS has bounded from around Rs 8 to around Rs 55 now, helping the PE ratio to read a more sedate 80x- a valuation zone that it has been used to for decades. Chart 2 outlines this journey.
While Titan remains the undisputed leader of the jewelry and watches business, a stock like Thangamayil Jewellery has returned substantially higher (640% vs 47% three-year return) when compared to Titan.
The stock price of Thangamayil too has performed exceedingly well, catching up with tremendous performance delivered by Titan.
The reason why the market doesn't talk about Thangamayil in the same breath despite the above, is because it is more of a regional player, being confined to the southern part of India for its business.
The bigger reason would be that Titan, with a market cap at Rs 3.8 lakh crore is many times the size of Thangamayil (market cap Rs 16k crore only) and it is easier for such stocks to show brisk price action when results turn positive.
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The recent quarter has seen very good numbers come in for all jewelry stocks including stocks like Kalyan Jewellers and Senco Gold. While Kalyan and Senco have faced some governance issues, Thangamayil has largely been devoid of any adverse news. This has helped its price action to outdo the moves of Titan, where good growth and great performances are already baked into the price, perhaps.
So, does it mean that one should switch to Thangamayil as a good pick within the jewelry space? Not quite. The stock price has already had a great run as can be seen in the comparative chart with Titan (after its debut in 2010). Chart 3.
Importantly, we need to look at what has happened with Titan's Q4 results. Three things stand out, in my opinion.
The jewelry franchise delivered its best-ever Q4 and with 8% buyer growth resurgence versus flattish for the year prior — the volume engine is back.
The international jewelry business turned operating-profitable for the full year in FY26 for the first time since launch, with Q4 international revenue compounding +174% YoY. This was for long acting as a drag on the numbers.
FY30 roadmap to doubling jewelry revenue, Tanishq market share lifting from 8.5% to 11%, and the store network expanding to ~1,400 — a 28% domestic share-gain target inside an industry TAM that Nomura projects will see organised share rise from 40% to 45% by FY30. The numbers are deliberately concrete — this is the first time Titan has committed to a quantified medium-term “double” framework. This can possibly lead to Titan's jewelry EBIT base of Rs 7,209 crore in FY26 (+47% YoY) and can credibly compound to Rs14,000-16,000 crore by FY30 — an EBIT base that supports a structurally higher trading multiple than the current 77x trailing PE optically suggests.
I think this aspect would work greatly in favor of Titan prices continuing in the same vein that they have been going for long, a feat that other competitors may find very difficult to emulate or compete with. While smaller may be nimbler but that has its limitations. Add to it the great trust factor that the Titan franchise carries in the market and with an expectation that the organised market place for jewelry is only set to increase, I do think that it would be very difficult for any of the competitors to beat the consistency of returns churned out by Titan through the decades.
Small wonder then that the FII and DII presence in the stock continues to remain very high and shows limited changes through the years whereas in the case of the other names, it waxes and wanes wildly. Investor confidence is paramount when prices trade at high levels.
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