Stock Picks Today: Brokers, AMCs, Paytm, Delhivery, BSE And More On Brokerages' Radar

Brokerages are out with their commentary on several stocks and sectors after their corporate announcements and measures announced in the Budget 2026.

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Brokerages are out with their commentary on several stocks and sectors after their corporate announcements and measures announced in the Budget 2026. Here's a quick look at the highlights of the top notes.

Jefferies On Brokers, AMCs And Exchanges

  • STT Hike: Sentimental negative; risks to volumes may be limited.
  • Impact on option turnover is likely to be limited noting a similar increase in overall expenses in Jul'24 budget had limited impact on orders or participation.
  • Our discussions with industry experts indicate up to 5% volume impact.
  • Estimated a 5% decline in ADTO/orders for BSE/GROWW could result in 4% earnings impact.

Bernstein on India Capital Markets & Insurance

  • STT hike another such measure that deters the pace of growth in derivatives speculation, while also augmenting government revenues.
  • Expect sentiment around the derivatives trading value chain to be soft and some volume impact.
  • For Nuvama, the higher STT should hurt profitability of market-makers/high-frequency trading outfits.
  • Insurance sector saw limited attention in the Budget speech.
  • No big-ticket changes in sector dynamics, or in tax rates for savers.
  • There was no discussion on insurance commissions, something that featured in the economic survey.

Equirus On BSE, Angel One and Nuvama Wealth

  • Proposal to raise the STT negative for exchanges, brokers as the derivative volumes are expected to go down.
  • BSE generated 60% of their revenues from equity derivatives in H1FY26.
  • Angel One derives 75% of their broking revenues from F&O in 9MFY26.
  • Nuvama Wealth is also likely to be impacted negatively as the asset services where the revenue is linked to F&O activity.

Citi On Brokers

  • Budget 2026-27: STT hike on F&O; impact less material in our view.
  • Rise in STT can lead to marginal reduction in F&O volumes in near term and dampen customer sentiment even as we rule out long-term change in customer trading behaviour.
  • Angel One/Groww: high F&O revenue mix and marginal top-line pressure, consequently.
  • Minimal impact for other capital market players, including Nuvama.

Kotak Securities On Capital Markets

  • Sharp STT hike (the third in four years) on F&O came as a surprise.
  • STT hike in options may not be impactful.
  • Hiking STT in futures appears a bit unreasonable, given the greater institutional participation.
  • This could potentially make options more attractive due to lower taxes.
  • Lower STT on cash equities would have been more helpful to address the issue of disproportionate share of F&O volumes in relation to cash.
  • Await clearer trends to emerge from the recent commodity price correction and overall trends in volumes and the MTF book.

ALSO READ: STT Hike Explained: What Brokerages Say And Why Markets Reacted Sharply

Brokerages On Delhivery

Investec

  • Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 515 from Rs 500.
  • Impressive Q3; lower Meesho insourcing aid EPD volumes.
  • On the negative side, corp overheads rose sharply, with the co investing in Part Truck Load sales team.
  • Believe Delhivery's competitive position is stronger than ever and further industry consolidation remains a possibility.

JPMorgan

  • Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 600.
  • Segment-wise performance was strong with Express parcel reaching 18% Service Ebitda margin mark.
  • Delhivery Direct and other smaller segments offer growth potential.
  • Capital intensity should continue to trend lower in the medium term.

Jefferies

  • Upgrade to Buy from Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 525 from Rs 360.
  • Insourcing Headwinds Ease.
  • Low Ecom integration costs drive 10% EBITDA beat in Q3.
  • Meesho scales down insourcing.
  • PTL volume growth remains strong.
  • Potential recovery in Road Logistics given strong CV sales is an additional tailwind.

ALSO READ: Budget 2026: Bourses Feel STT Hike Effect On Markets To Subside; NSE Says No Impact On IPO

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Brokerages On Paytm

Citi

  • Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1375
  • Higher UPI Incentives Allocated for FY26 Than Budgeted Last Year
  • For Payments Fintech, key watch is whether MDR on eligible UPI transactions is allowed – no new development thus far.

Bernstein

  • Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1600.
  • Union Budget for FY27 marks a U-turn in the government's subsidy support for India's digital payments ecosystem.
  • Government reinstating UPI incentives at Rs 2000 cr for FY27E and sharply revising FY26 allocations upward to Rs 2200 crore.
  • This comes against expectations that UPI incentives could be phased out.
  • The announcement provides visibility on continued policy support for payments infrastructure.
  • A clear positive for Paytm, partially offsetting the impact from the discontinuation of PIDF incentives.

ALSO READ: Paytm Logs Another Quarterly Profit In Q3, Records Over 10x Surge

Morgan Stanley On IGI

  • Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 466.
  • Acquisition of AGL: Transaction to add 3% and 12% respectively to IGI's consol and international revenues.
  • Transaction to combine IGI's global reach with AGL's scientific leadership in coloured stones.
  • Chris Smith to continue as President and Chief Gemologist of AGL.
  • View this transaction as positive in a key focus market of the US, diversifying revenue stream in coloured gemstones, given IGI's strong cash position.

CLSA on Capital Goods

  • Capital goods - semiconductor 2.0 – upside for L&T.
  • L&T has decided to take the path less travelled by starting from the design phase of the semi-conductor business.
  • This is less capital-intensive, and more knowledge focussed where India has a human resource advantage.
  • More than 50% of the value is attributable to the design segment.

CLSA on PFC and REC

  • In the 2026 Budget speech, India's finance minister announced that the government will restructure PFC and REC.
  • We don't know the details about the restructuring.
  • Assume the government proceeds with its earlier plan to merge PFC and REC into a single entity.
  • The current hold-co discount applied to PFC's stake in REC would effectively disappear.
  • Based on current market capitalisations of both companies, the current hold-co discount stands at around 14%.

CLSA on Banks

  • Higher-than-expected estimate of gross market borrowings for FY27 by government of India.
  • This would affect bond yield, which are likely to rise 5-10bps from current levels.
  • This in turn will affect banks' treasury income, especially PSU banks more than private banks.
  • PSU Bank treasury income comprised of 20% of H1FY26 PBT for SBI, BOB and PNB.

CLSA on TCS

  • Announced tax holidays until 2047 to foreign companies providing cloud services to global customers.
  • This tax reform does benefit the hyperscalers and other foreign companies who would be clients of TCS's data center.
  • TCS management is not sure whether this would translate into tax benefits for TCS's data center subsidiary.
  • We do believe that this could lead to second order benefits to India based co-location providers like TCS in terms of greater demand.

ALSO READ: Government Expects Another Record Dividend Payout From RBI

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