Stock Market Today: Nifty, Sensex End Flat As HDFC Bank, Titan Weigh

-The local currency closed flat at 83.50 against the US dollar.

-It closed at 83.49 on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

• Saw retail sales growth of 11% and same store sales growth of 4%

• Total sales rose 9% YoY including exports, ecommerce, corporate, digital products

• Expect to grow at 18-20% percent this year

Source: Exchange filing

• Total premium at Rs 42,434 crore, up 14.8% YoY

• HDFC Life's total premium at Rs 2,694 crore, up 8.3% YoY

• Bajaj Allianz's total premium at Rs 1,082 crore, up 22% YoY

• ICICI Prudential's total premium at Rs 1,511 crore, up 14% YoY

• Max Life's total premium at Rs 894 crore, down 5.7% YoY

• SBI Life's total premium at Rs 2,990 crore, up 21.8% YoY

• LIC's total premium at Rs 28,367 crore, up 13.6% YoY

Source: Life Insurance Council

Mercedes-Benz India clocks highest-ever half-yearly sales on the back of demand for top-end vehicles.

• Sales rose 9% YoY to 9,262 units in H1 2024 vs 8,528 in H1 2023

• SUVs made up 55% Mercedes-Benz’s volumes in H1 2024

• Top-end vehicles made up 25% of sales in H1 2024

• Mercedes-Benz’s EV portfolio grew by 60% YoY in H1 2024

• Electric cars made up 5% of total sales volumes in H1 2024

Source: Company statement

Board appoints Amar Kaul as MD & CEO for 5 years effective July 25

Source: Exchange Filing

Underwhelming Earnings May Play Spoilsport For Indian Stocks' Record Rally

• June new business premium up 14.1% at Rs 1,511 crore

• June new business sum assured up 13.6% at Rs 85,348 crore

Source: Exchange Filing

• Q1 group wholesales (including JLR) up 2% at 3.3 lakh units

• Q1 global PV wholesales down 1% at 1.4 lakh units

• Q1 global CV wholesales up 6% at 93,410 units

• Q1 global JLR wholesales up 5% at 97,755 units

Source: Exchange Filing

• Domestic advances as of June-end up 17.3% at Rs 4.3 lakh crore

• Domestic deposits as of June-end up 10% at Rs 5.9 lakh crore

Source: Exchange Filing

In pact with China-based Guangxi Ramway Tech for assembly of relays in India

Source: Exchange Filing

• Limited fiscal space in their view to stimulate the economy given high public debt

• India’s infrastructure upgrades have created long-term positive growth spillovers: policymakers may not be willing to give up

• Expects government to stick to fiscal deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for FY25

• Consolidation to a deficit of below 4.5% of GDP by FY26

• Some expenditure allocation towards welfare spending, may not require a reduction in capex given the higher than expected dividend from RBI

• Limited fiscal space for stimulus in FY25

• FY26 given the fiscal consolidation target of the central government

• Expects capex to provide a positive impulse, while welfare spending will likely remain a drag

• See an emphasis on job creation through labor-intensive manufacturing, credit for MSMEs, continued focus on services exports by expanding GCCs, thrust on domestic food supply chain and inventory management to control price volatility.

Budget is also likely to lay out a path for the future of public finance in India, entailing:

• a roadmap for public debt sustainability

• green finance: the role of public finance in balancing India’s energy security vs. transition needs

• Q1 sales value up 36% at Rs 306 crore

• Q1 collections up 49% at Rs 165 crore

Source: Exchange Filing

• Finalises orders in the range of Rs 10,000-15,000 crore for solar plants in Middle East

• Middle East solar plants to have cumulative capacity of 3.5 GW

Source: Exchange Filing

• Maintains 'Overweight', Target Rs 6,900, upside:0.9%

• Naukri Q1FY25 billing accelerated and were in line with estimates, 99 acres growth slowed

• Jobspeak index are providing mixed indications for both IT and overall as index was flat

• Channel checks did not indicate recovery in discretionary spends

• Peak utilisations may drive some IT hiring

• Stock is relatively cheaper and higher quality play on IT recovery.

• Consistent improvement in Naukri billings momentum to be driver of stock performance.

• Q1 retailer sales up 25% at Rs 3,214 crore

• Q1 gross retail sales up 28% at Rs 794 crore

Source: Exchange Filing

Shares of the company rose as much as 10.75% to hit record high of 513.70 apiece. Its trading 5.04% higher at Rs 513.70 apiece, as of 9:26 a.m. This compares to a 0.04% decline in the NSE Nifty 50 Index.

It has risen 253.65% in the last 12 months. Total traded volume so far in the day stood at 12 times its 30-day average. The relative strength index was at 72.04, indicating the stock is overbought.

Both the analysts tracking the company maintain a 'buy' call on the stock, according to Bloomberg data. The average 12-month consensus price target implies a downside of 4.3%.

Market breadth was skewed in the favour of buyers. Around 1,903 stocks rose, 1,318 fell and 134 remained unchanged on the BSE.

At pre-open, the Nifty was flat at 24329.45 and the Sensex was lower by 0.1% at 79915.00.

The yield on the 10-year bond opened flat at 6.99%.

It closed at 6.99% on Friday.

Source: Cogencis

• The local currency strengthened by 4 paise to open at 83.45 against the US dollar.

• It closed at 83.49 on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

Q1 standalone billings at Rs 579.4 crore vs Rs 523 crore

Q1 recruitment solutions at Rs 431.4 crore vs Rs 397.5 crore

Q1 99acres for real estate at Rs 81 crore vs Rs 73.4 crore

Source: Exchange Filing

• Maintains 'equal weight'; target price Rs 280

• Decline in loans was led by domestic and overseas

• Gross loan growth moderated and was below system growth

• Deposits degrew 2% sequentially after strong 6% growth in the previous quarter

• Loan to deposit ratio at 79.8% vs 79.6% QOQ

• Nifty earnings to grow 4% YoY in 1QFY25

• Margin tailwinds are likely to ebb due to a high base

• Earnings growth is anticipated to be driven, once again, by domestic cyclicals: Auto (+18% YoY), BFSI (+15% YoY), Healthcare (+21% YoY), and Metals (+12% YoY)

• Earnings growth is likely to be weighed down by global cyclicals, such as OMC’s which are anticipated to decline 36% YoY, Cement (-15% YoY), Specialty Chemicals (-20% YoY), andReal Estate (+37% YoY)

• Strong growth in the following sectors expected in retail (+14% YoY), consumers (+10% YoY), and technology (+6% YoY)

• Nifty EPS remain stable at Rs 1,134 and Rs 1,330, respectively.

• Estimate the Nifty EPS to grow 13%/17% in FY25/FY26

• FY25 to normalize as earnings converge with revenue growth

Top Ideas

Largecaps – ICICI Bank, SBI, L&T, M&M, HCL Tech, Coal India, Titan, Mankind Pharma, CIFC and Hindalco;

Midcaps and Smallcaps – Indian Hotels, Ashok Leyland, Godrej Properties, KEI Industries, PNB Housing, Cello World, Kalyan Jewelers, Persistent Systems, Angel One, Metro Brands

• Maintains buy with target of Rs 1,141, upside 14%

• JLR wholesale/ retail volumes improved during the quarter

• Wholesale volumes up 5% yoy at 97,900 units

• Wholesale volume growth in North America (+38%) and UK (+36%)

• Retails at 1 lakh units, up 13% yoy

• Waiting list for Range rover electric improved to 39,000

• Estimate yearly volumes at 3.98 lakh for FY25

• Forecast JLR EBIT margins by 8.4% vs 8.6% reported YoY

• Maintains Buy; Target price raised to Rs 12,000 vs Rs 10340 earlier

• Huge Addressable Market for CNG motorcycles

• First CNG 125cc motorcycle "Freedom" at a starting ex-showroom price of Rs 95,000

• Management expects size of the addressable market to be ~650,000 units/month

• Built in volumes of 10,000 units/month in second half of FY25

• Expect 20,000 units/month in FY26 for this model

• Expect revenue/EBITDA CAGR at 12%/15% over FY24–26E

• Expect average RoE of ~35%

• Target based on 35 times FY26E earnings along with cash/investments of Rs 876/share

• Price band Changes from 10% to 5%: Century Extrusions, Cochin Shipyard, Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers.

• Ex/record Dividend: Computer Age Management Services.

• Ex/record AGM: Nucleus Software Exports.

• Moved in short-term Framework: GM Breweries.

NSE Urges SEBI To Reconsider IPO Approval In Delhi High Court Proceedings