SpaceX is set to report its first quarterly earnings since its record-breaking IPO, with investors watching whether Starlink's profits can continue to fund the company's expanding investments in artificial intelligence and space ventures.
The results, due after Tuesday's market close, will give public investors their first detailed look at whether SpaceX's financial performance supports CEO Elon Musk's long-term vision spanning AI, space exploration and telecommunications.
Musk has positioned AI as one of SpaceX's next major growth areas. His plans extend beyond renting computing capacity to third parties and include developing frontier AI models, consumer and enterprise software, and eventually data centres in space.
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"Starlink is executing beautifully, but it cannot single-handedly fund a $30 billion annualized AI ​capex program," said Will Rhind, founder and CEO of GraniteShares, an asset manager that offers ETFs tied to SpaceX stock performance.
Until the AI business and Starship launch operations become self-sustaining, however, Musk intends to use Starlink's profits to fund both businesses - a strategy that critics argue is unsustainable.
According to LSEG-compiled data, analysts expect SpaceX's AI business to nearly triple to $2.33 billion in the April-June quarter, compared with 12.5% growth in the previous quarter. Revenue growth at Starlink is also expected to accelerate to 52.6%, up from 31.6%, largely driven by expansion into additional countries.
The company's investment in AI remains significant. SpaceX spent $7.72 billion on AI expansion in the January-March quarter, accounting for about three-quarters of its total capital expenditure. Analysts expect overall capital spending to rise to nearly $14.05 billion in the April-June period, while capital expenditure in the AI segment is projected to increase more than six-fold year-on-year to $10.2 billion, according to Visible Alpha data.
SpaceX shares have retreated since the company's $86 billion IPO in June, as investors questioned whether its valuation of 77 times expected revenue can be sustained.
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The stock may also face additional pressure as the post-IPO lock-up period begins on Aug. 6, potentially allowing insiders and early investors to sell their shares.
Investors are also expected to closely watch Musk's comments on a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla. The focus follows a media report last week claiming executives at the electric vehicle maker had been asked to prepare for a separation of its China business ahead of a possible deal.
Musk dismissed the report as "fake news", although he has previously declined to rule out a merger, citing growing overlap between the two companies.
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