Nifty Technical Outlook: RSI At Lowest Since April 1, Key Levels To Watch On Weekly Expiry

The benchmark index ended at a two-month low after renewed selling pressure, while momentum indicators and open-interest data point to a weak near-term market structure.

Advertisement
Read Time: 3 mins

The Nifty 50 ended at a two-month low on Monday after geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the US weighed on sentiment and triggered broad-based selling.

The index opened nearly 280 points lower before recovering part of its losses. However, selling pressure returned during the second half of the session, pulling the benchmark down more than 1% to close at 23,123.

Advertisement

The decline comes ahead of Tuesday's weekly expiry, with technical indicators and derivatives data suggesting traders remain cautious despite signs of stretched price action.

Selling Pressure Returns

The day's price action formed a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling emerged at higher levels.

Trading volumes were slightly higher than the previous session, resulting in a distribution day as the index declined more than 1% on increased turnover.

Advertisement

Technical Setup Weakens

The Nifty closed below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating near-term weakness.

The benchmark is also trading 2.37% below its 50-day moving average. While the moving average remains broadly flat, a sustained decline could increase downside pressure if the trend begins to weaken further.

Breadth Remains Negative

Market breadth remained weak across both benchmark constituents and the broader market.

Open-interest data pointed to fresh short build-up, while heavyweight stocks including Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and Larsen & Toubro together contributed more than 92 points to the index's decline.

Advertisement

Momentum Indicators

Momentum indicators continue to favour the bears.

The MACD histogram showed increasing downside momentum, while the 14-day RSI slipped below 40 and closed at its lowest level since April 1.

The negative directional indicator remained above the positive directional indicator, while a rising ADX suggested the prevailing downtrend was strengthening.

Key Levels For Expiry

The Nifty has formed a fresh lower low, keeping the near-term market structure weak.

Immediate support is placed in the 23,000-23,100 zone. A sustained move below this range could expose the index to further downside towards 22,700 and 22,550.

On the upside, the benchmark needs to close above the 23,550-23,600 zone to indicate an improvement in near-term sentiment.

Until then, recovery attempts may continue to face selling pressure.

Stock In Focus — Fortis Healthcare

Fortis Healthcare broke out of a 65-day cup-and-handle pattern on strong volumes on Monday.

The stock also closed above the 61.8% retracement level of its previous decline, while the relative-strength line moved to a new high, indicating outperformance against the broader market.

Fortis remains above its key moving averages and trades 9.86% above its 50-day moving average.

The Bollinger Bands have widened across multiple time frames, suggesting an increase in momentum. The MACD is nearing a fresh positive crossover, while the 14-day RSI and Stochastic RSI have generated positive signals.

Advertisement

A sustained move above the Rs 993-995 zone would keep the technical structure constructive, with the next resistance area placed near Rs 1,095-1,105. Immediate support is seen at Rs 952.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of NDTV Profit or its affiliates. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment or business decisions. NDTV Profit does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented in this article.

Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.


Loading...