- Bumble's stock has fallen 95% since its 2021 IPO due to shifting dating trends and execution issues
- Gen Z users date less and pay less, limiting Bumble's paid subscriber growth and pricing power
- Bumble is purging inactive accounts to improve safety, causing a short-term user base decline
Once upon a pandemic, Bumble Inc. was the woman-friendly dating app investors couldn't stop swiping right on. Lockdowns boosted downloads, subscriptions soared, and Bumble's IPO in 2021 landed perfectly into a market obsessed with growth-at-all-costs tech. Fast forward five years and the romance is over. Bumble's share price has fallen about 95% from its peak, and over 50% in the last six months, now hovering around $3-4.
The collapse is the outcome of structural shifts in how people date, compounded by execution missteps and a painful business rebuild, and at the heart of it is is a generational shift led by Gen Z.
The Gen Z Problem: Fewer Dates, Less Willingness To Pay
A Bloomberg Intelligence survey found that 44% of Gen Z respondents are single but not dating, double the rate for millennials. Even among those who use dating apps, Gen Z is far less willing to pay - 47% stick to free versions, versus about 30% of millennials. That caps growth in paid users, which is also the metric Wall Street cares about most, and limits pricing power.
To be fair, the consensus is that the apps were designed for millennials. Gen Z users are more sceptical, more comfortable staying single, and more vocal about 'dating app burnout,' ghosting and safety concerns.
This matters because Bumble's business model depends on converting free users into paying subscribers. While average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) has held up, the number of payers has been shrinking, a red flag for long-term growth.
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User Decline And The Cost Of Cleaning House
Bumble has responded by trying to improve quality over quantity. The management has been purging inactive and bad-actor accounts, which it estimates made up roughly 10% of users. While this improves trust and safety, it shrinks the user base in the short term.
Bloomberg Intelligence expected total users to fall more than 10% in 2025, with revenue also under pressure as product changes take time to translate into higher engagement. That trade-off of better experience today, and weaker numbers tomorrow, has been brutal for the stock.
According to a Deutsche Bank research note, Bumble's Q3FY26 results showed payers falling over 18% year-on-year, a steeper decline than in previous quarters, as stricter verification and reduced marketing limited new sign-ups.
Deutsche Bank warned that while these steps are 'necessary to revitalise the ecosystem,' they would likely pressure revenue and margins in the near term, prompting a cut to its target price.
Fading Growth Optics
Bumble's financials tell a sobering story. After years of rapid growth, analysts are now forecasting mid- to high-single-digit percentage drops over the next year. The company has also pulled back on long-term guidance, increasing uncertainty for investors used to predictable SaaS-style growth.
Margins have held up largely due to cost cuts, especially in marketing. But that creates its own problem, because restarting growth may require higher spending, potentially compressing margins again.
Analysts argue that Bumble's overhaul, which includes redesigns, pricing tweaks and ecosystem changes, is necessary but disruptive. As Bloomberg Intelligence puts it, 2025 is effectively a rebuilding year, not a growth year.
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Competition Is Eating Its Lunch
Bumble is also losing ground to better-capitalised rivals like Hinge. Owned by Match Group, Hinge has been gaining share among younger users. Match's broader portfolio, which includes Tinder, OkCupid, etc., allows it to target different demographics and dating intents, while spreading the cost of AI, safety tools and marketing across multiple platforms.
Deutsche Bank noted that Bumble trades at a much lower EBITDA multiple than Match. Analysts view this discount as justified given Bumble's smaller scale, narrower product range and slower turnaround. Scale matters more than ever as dating apps invest in AI-driven matching, content moderation and fraud prevention, which are all expensive capabilities with uncertain payoffs.
Repricing Of Romance
Analysts broadly agree that Bumble is not broken. J.P. Morgan rates the stock underweight, warning that revenue and payer declines could persist through 2026, with a meaningful recovery unlikely before 2027. However, there are green shoots — retention metrics have shown pockets of improvement, and Bumble is experimenting with AI-assisted matching and profile tools. But analysts caution that AI can enhance experience, not fix the underlying issue of fewer people wanting to date in the first place.
Dating apps thrived when growth was driven by expanding user bases and rising subscriptions. Now, with Gen Z opting out, investors are repricing these businesses as low-growth, execution-heavy platforms, not tech darlings.
ALSO READ: How Dating Apps Are Monetising Your Loneliness
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