Gold and silver have staged a stunning rally in early 2026, scaling record highs and drawing fresh investor interest. International gold prices have climbed to around $5,486 per troy ounce, while silver is trading close to $117 per ounce. But even as the fundamentals remain supportive, market experts are warning that this may not be the right time for new investments in bullion rather a time to wait and watch.
Gold's nearly 28% rise in January alone stands out as an exceptional move, comparable only to the surge seen in 1980. The rally has been driven by a rare confluence of factors, a sharply weaker US dollar, heightened geopolitical tensions, including US–Iran risks, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, sustained central-bank buying, and strong ETF inflows as investors looked for safety amid equity market volatility.
However, analysts caution that much of this optimism is already reflected in prices. Ajay Suresh Kedia, founder and director of Kedia Advisory, says such sharp monthly gains often signal a late-stage phase of the rally.
"Bullion remains structurally bullish, but tactically this is a phase for discipline, hedging and calibrated exposure, not blind momentum buying,” he says, adding that a 20–25% correction in gold and 30–35% in silver cannot be ruled out if geopolitics ease or profit-taking picks up.
The weakening dollar has played a particularly important role. The Dollar Index has fallen below 96, a four-year low, amplifying gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, central banks have continued to diversify reserves away from foreign exchange currencies toward commodities, keeping demand strong.
Even so, experts believe investors should focus more on allocation than timing. Ruchit Mehta of SBI Mutual Fund advises restraint at current levels. “At elevated prices, commodities should be part of a multi-asset approach. Commodity ETFs should be limited to 10-15% of the portfolio. Parabolic rallies can also see sharp reversals.”
Suresh Sadagopan, founder of Ladder 7 Financial Advisories, echoes the wait-and-watch approach, noting that the rally in gold and silver has happened suddenly. “Gold and silver should have been bought two years back. This is not the time to enter at unreasonably high levels,” he says, adding that those investing now should prefer SIPs over lump-sum exposure.
Harshvardhan Roongta of Roongta Securities reinforces that bullion should not be treated as a short-term trade. “Maintain a 10–20% allocation as part of asset allocation, but don't take this as a trading call or try to time the market.”
While gold and silver continue to benefit from macro uncertainty and structural demand, experts say the current rally looks crowded making patience and disciplined allocation far more important than chasing returns.
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