As the global obesity drug market shifts rapidly toward next-generation GLP-1 therapies, Biocon is preparing to monetise a narrowing but still meaningful opportunity in liraglutide.
Speaking to NDTV Profit after securing regulatory approval, CEO and MD Siddhartha Mittal said the company expects to commercially launch its generic version of Saxenda (liraglutide) in the US within the next 30 to 45 days. The company is also awaiting approval for Victoza, another liraglutide product, in the coming months.
While Europe has seen supply backorders, the US rollout is now being prioritised. Mittal said the opportunity remains meaningful despite the broader GLP-1 market shifting toward newer therapies such as Ozempic and Mounjaro.
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$50-100 Million Revenue Potential in FY27
According to IQVIA data cited by Mittal, the US liraglutide market is currently valued at about $130 million at generic pricing levels, having shrunk as patients migrated to semaglutide and tirzepatide.
Even so, Biocon sees scope to capture a high-teens to low-20% market share in the US over the next two to three years, given limited competition. "There are still a limited number of players who have commercialised generic Saxenda in the US," Mittal said.
For FY27, combining the US and Europe, the company expects liraglutide to contribute between $50 million and $100 million in revenues.
In Europe, performance will vary by country. In markets such as the Netherlands - which operate on tender-based systems - Biocon and its partner Teva have already secured significant share. In other markets, share may remain lower depending on competitive dynamics.
Pricing Pressures in GLP-1 Space
Mittal acknowledged that pricing pressure in the GLP-1 category remains a key variable. Competition between innovators - particularly between Ozempic and Mounjaro - has driven down monthly treatment costs over the past year.
As innovator pricing softens, payers and insurers are likely to push for lower prices across the board, including generics. "As the monthly treatment cost comes down, there will be an impact on generics pricing," he noted, suggesting margin pressure could follow for generic manufacturers.
However, limited competition in liraglutide could help contain pricing erosion in the near term.
Semaglutide Timeline and Obesity Strategy
Looking ahead, semaglutide - the active ingredient in Ozempic - goes off patent in the US and Europe in 2031, while in certain emerging markets exclusivity ends as early as next month.
Biocon has already begun filings in several large emerging markets. In a best-case scenario, approvals could come by calendar 2027, though revenue contribution is more likely from calendar 2028 onward.
Tirzepatide, the molecule behind Mounjaro, is expected to lose patent protection later, around 2034.
Mittal said Biocon's US obesity strategy over the next five years will largely hinge on generic timelines. Liraglutide will drive near-term opportunity through FY28, after which growth may taper once peak market share is achieved. Meaningful expansion in the US GLP-1 space is expected only after semaglutide's patent expiry.
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