Counting of votes for assembly elections has gotten underway in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, at 8 am on Thursday.
Survey firms released exit polls on March 7, following the conclusion of the seventh phase of voting in U.P. All key exit polls for U.P. forecast the Bharatiya Janata Party returning to power, after five years in government led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. In Punjab, the exit polls pointed to a successful expansion into Punjab for the Aam Aadmi Party that is currently in power in the National Capital Territory of Delhi. In Uttarakhand and Manipur, exit polls found the BJP leading, with some surveys showing it crossing the halfway mark. Most exit polls have forecast a hung assembly in Goa with a close contest between the BJP and the Indian National Congress.
Today’s election results, primarily in Uttar Pradesh, outcome could define the political priorities Prime Minister Narendra Modi chooses to pursue for the remainder of his second term. Western Uttar Pradesh was among the regions that saw year-long protests to the Modi government's farm laws, before their repeal in November 2021. In Punjab, which was the epicentre of the farmer protests, the BJP is a marginal political player.
The build-up to the U.P. election was marked by a "rising tide of religious polarisation", wrote Bloomberg Opinion's Ruth Pollard. While concurring on the spike in hate speech, fellow Bloomberg columnist Mihir Sharma argued that the election result in U.P. would be determined by voters' assessment of their economic prospects.
The Election Commission has posted the first leads from the frontier state of Punjab. In this very early round of data, the Shiromani Akali Dal is shown leading in the Mukerian constituency, and an independent candidate leading in Sultanpur Lodhi.
The first two leads in the politically critical states of Uttar Pradesh have the Bharatiya Janata Party leading in both seats. These are in the constituencies of Sandila near Lucknow, and in Tindwari, south of the Yamuna in Banda district.
In Manipur, the BJP is leading in six seats, the Janata Dal (United) in two, while the Indian National Congress, the Kuki People’s Alliance, and an independent candidate are leading in one seat each.
The Samajwadi Party and its allies are at half the BJP's tally, leading in a little over 60 seats. Leads for the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Indian National Congress have stayed in single-digits in the two hours of counting that has been carried out so far.
The Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal combine are as of 10:30 am at half the BJP tally, in the first largely bipolar election in Uttar Pradesh in decades.
The run-up in the equity markets on Thursday is entirely thanks to the global picture, and crude prices coming off. The political outcome does not have much to do with this rally.