In a tragic turn of events that has sent shockwaves through Maharashtra's political landscape, Ajit Pawar, the Deputy Chief Minister and a towering figure in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), perished in a private jet crash on January 28, 2026. The incident, occurring en route from Mumbai to Baramati, has not only left a void in his family but also ignited a frenzy of speculation about the future of the NCP and the broader alliances shaping the state's governance.
Ajit Pawar, often called "Dada" by his supporters, was a master strategist whose political maneuvers had redefined coalitions in Maharashtra. His untimely death at the age of 66 raises profound questions:
- What happens to the Mahayuti government?
- What happens to the NCP?
- Will it stay aligned with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) / Mahayuti?
- Who steps into the role of Deputy CM?
- And could this lead to a merger with the NCP-SP faction, implosion, or further fragmentation of the party?
To understand the ramifications, we must revisit the turbulent recent history of the NCP. Founded in 1999 by Sharad Pawar, Ajit's uncle and a veteran political heavyweight, the party has long been synonymous with Maharashtra's agrarian and cooperative sectors.
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However, fissures emerged dramatically in July 2023 when Ajit Pawar led a faction of the NCP to break away and join the NDA-led Mahayuti alliance, defying Sharad Pawar's wishes. This split was not just ideological but deeply personal, pitting family members against each other.
The Election Commission recognized Ajit Pawar's group as the official NCP, granting it the party symbol, while Sharad Pawar's loyalists were designated as NCP-Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP) and aligned with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
The rivalry played out fiercely in the electoral arena. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Ajit's wife, Sunetra Pawar, contested from the family's stronghold of Baramati against Supriya Sule, Sharad Pawar's daughter and a prominent NCP-SP leader. Sunetra's defeat was a bitter pill, symbolizing the enduring loyalty to Sharad Pawar in the region.
The Vidhan Sabha polls later that year were equally dramatic: Ajit Pawar himself faced off against Yugendra Pawar, the son of his younger brother Shrinivas Pawar, in a family feud that underscored the personal stakes. Ajit emerged victorious, consolidating his hold on the state-level machinery.
Yet, amid these battles, signs of reconciliation flickered. The two factions collaborated in the municipal corporation elections for Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, hinting at pragmatic unity for local gains. Reports in late 2025 even suggested merger talks, with a proposed division of labor: Ajit handling state affairs and Supriya focusing on national politics from Delhi. Ajit and BJP President were even involved in heated duel during the campaign.
"Everybody knows that allegations of a Rs 70,000-crore irrigation scam were made against me. Today, I am in power alongside those who made those allegations. Can a person be labelled guilty even before it is proved?" Pawar asked. Probably Ajit Pawar, the shrewd politician, was preparing for an eventuality if the BJP decided to go solo in 2029 vidhan sabha polls.
Ajit Pawar's death disrupts the fragile equilibrium in Maharashtra politics. As Deputy CM in the Devendra Fadnavis-led government, he was instrumental in maintaining the Mahayuti coalition's stability, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), and his NCP. His passing creates an immediate leadership vacuum.
What happens to the Mahayuti government?
The Mahayuti enjoys the The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP 'Mahayuti' coalition has a commanding majority of 230 seats in the 288-member assembly, where the majority mark is 145. BJP commands a majority with support of 189 MLAs even without the 41 MLAs of NCP.
What happens to the NCP?
Regional parties in India, particularly those like the NCP, rooted in Maratha pride and rural interests, often thrive under family stewardship. Senior NCP figures like Praful Patel or Sunil Tatkare, may throw in their hat for Deputy CM post, but consensus may be elusive.
With 41 MLAs under Ajit's wing, the faction's loyalty was tied to his charisma and resource control. In the interim, Sunetra Pawar , his wife, could be elevated to the post of Party President, leveraging her proximity to Ajit and the family's legacy.
However, Sunetra is not a seasoned politician; her foray into active politics was limited to the ill-fated Baramati contest after which she was nominated as a Rajya Sabha MP. Managing a party faction amid grief and power struggles could prove overwhelming for her.
Who will replace him as Deputy CM?
She could nominate a senior leader like Prafulla Patel or Sunil Tatkare for the post of Deputy CM in consultations with senior leaders.
Will it stay aligned with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) / Mahayuti?
Under the current circumstances with many MLAs part of Mahayuti government, NCP is likely to remain in NDA.
Could there be a merger with the NCP-SP faction, implosion, or further fragmentation of the party?
The bigger question looms over the NCP's unity and direction. Sharad Pawar, now 85 and whose Rajya Sabha term ends in April 2026, has hinted at retirement, citing health and age. This incident may keep him active for a while. Sunetra, a novice, may depend upon Sharad Pawar to maneuver through these testing times.
A merger between Ajit's NCP and NCP-SP seems plausible, especially given the pre-death reconciliation efforts. Such a union could see Supriya Sule and Sunetra Pawar sharing responsibilities-Supriya steering national strategy and Sunetra overseeing state operations, perhaps with Rohit Pawar, Sharad's grandnephew, emerging as a long-term leader.
Rohit Pawar, the MLA from Karjat-Jamkhed, represents the next generation. Charismatic and outspoken, has built a youth following. In a merged NCP, he could bridge the generational gap, but his ascent might face resistance from entrenched seniors. So the handover to Rohit could be done in a phased but time bound manner.
If the merger materializes, the united NCP would command significant influence, potentially reclaiming its pre-split strength of over 50 MLAs. However, ideological rifts persist: Ajit's faction is entrenched in the Mahayuti, benefiting from power perks, while NCP-SP remains committed to the MVA's secular, anti-BJP stance. This ideological tug-of-war could determine the party's fate over the long term.
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If Sharad Pawar, in his final act, insists that a united NCP exit the Mahayuti, and impresses upon Sunetra to do the same, defections are likely and the NCP may face split, even takeover attempts by some senior leaders. Some MLAs, enticed by BJP's organizational muscle and development funds, might jump ship, leading to an implosion.
Maharashtra in the last three and half years has witnessed a history of engineering splits- the Shiv Sena division in 2022 and NCP in 2023. A weakened NCP could be ripe for poaching, bolstering the BJP's dominance in Maharashtra. Conversely, if the NCP stays with the NDA, it might stabilize under interim leadership, but without Ajit's deal-making prowess, its bargaining power diminishes.
In conclusion, Ajit Pawar's demise is more than a personal tragedy-it's a pivotal moment for Maharashtra's polity. The NCP, once a unified force, now teeters between merger-driven revival and factional disintegration. Sunetra's interim stewardship, Supriya's national ambitions, and Rohit's potential rise offer hope for continuity, but without family cohesion, the party risks fading into oblivion.
As Sharad Pawar contemplates his swansong, his decisions will shape whether the NCP remains a bulwark against BJP hegemony or fractures under pressure. Maharashtra watches anxiously; the jet crash that claimed Ajit Pawar may well crash the delicate alliances he built. Only time will tell if the Pawar legacy endures or unravels.
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