- The US Supreme Court struck down emergency tariff powers, causing global trade shifts
- India faces short-term policy changes but may avoid the harshest duties on exports
- Experts highlight India's strong fundamentals amid ongoing tariff and market uncertainties
A landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down the administration's use of emergency powers to levy sweeping tariffs has reset the global trade conversation — just as a fresh, temporary 10% global levy has been announced, injecting a new layer of uncertainty. For India, that one‑two punch means near‑term policy flux but also potential relief from the most punitive duties, with investors now parsing what sticks, what gets challenged, and how quickly refunds and renegotiations might play out.
NDTV Profit gathered reactions across markets, law, trade, and industry — revealing cautious optimism about India's fundamentals alongside clear warnings on policy and legal risk.
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Markets And Macro
Veteran investor Deven Choksey said AI is a “big enabler” for India, arguing that technology leverage and improving IT exports will remain a “larger theme to follow.” He added that currency‑market uncertainty is easing, a relief for corporate balance sheets and import‑heavy sectors, and that many companies will feel less heat on the competition front. Still, tariff direction “remains unclear,” and he expects the 10% levy to be temporary.
Portfolio manager Manish Sonthalia underscored that market fundamentals remain strong, noting Q3 earnings were solid. He expects emerging markets to outperform, describing the sell‑off as oversold and likely to produce a knee‑jerk reaction before stabilising.
Global strategist David Roche offered a counterpoint: the cost of borrowing could rise as policy gears shift, even as lower U.S. inflation aids the Fed. If tariffs are discounted, inflation should fall, he said, adding that U.S. GDP doesn't signal an imminent downturn—calling it “a kind of maverick.” Vaibhav Sanghavi flagged that India has a currency edge over China, urged more clarity amid the euphoria, and noted India was more competitive at an 18% tariff than many peers.
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Law And Trade
Supreme Court lawyer Jai Anant Dehadri expects quick settlements and judgments, with U.S. importers moving courts soon. He stressed it wasn't the court's remit to decide refunds, but many U.S. companies will now file claims, calling the development “fantastic for India.” He said steel and aluminium tariffs may still remain, but Indian exporters gain power to renegotiate, and the market tone should be bullish. In a separate assessment, he added that the ruling draws a line between trade policy and war powers, and that Trump's political clout appears diminished.
FIEO chief Ajay Sahai said markets and traders want certainty, and the impact across Canada, Mexico and India must be evaluated. He warned Trump could invoke other methods, even as the working assumption is tariffs are down to 10%, and read the swift move to tack on duties as a show of power.
Geopolitics And Tech
Former ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar argued Donald Trump is now like a “wounded animal,” saying his powers have been limited and a blunt weapon has been taken away—but the ruling amplifies uncertainty and could inflame rhetoric.
From the broking lens, the WIRC Chairman said AI is an enabler, not a replacement, and expects a wave of innovation, urging tech education for clients.
The NSE CBDO said the bourse aims to maintain strong checks and balances, conducts frequent inspections in algo trading, and digitised share certificates a decade ago, underscoring process discipline.
On corporate moves, Ajay Joshi said UPL's restructuring tracks global trends. In energy, Sukrit Vijayakar noted Venezuelan oil's economics are complex, Middle‑East shipping is cheaper, and crude swings are driven more by speculation than fundamentals just now.
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