As tensions between Iran and the United States intensify, Tehran is preparing for worst-case scenarios, including war and potential assassination attempts targeting its top leadership.
According to a report by The New York Times, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has entrusted senior official Ali Larijani with ensuring the survival of the Islamic Republic in the event of US military strikes or disruption to the country's command structure.
Larijani, 67, is reportedly drawing up contingency plans to manage the state if conflict erupts or if Khamenei is killed.
Who Is Ali Larijani?
Ali Larijani currently serves as Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the powerful body that oversees national security and foreign policy decisions.
A founding member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Larijani has held several influential roles over the past four decades. He has been the Speaker of Parliament (2008–2020), Head of state broadcaster Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, senior adviser to Khamenei, Nuclear negotiator and Architect of the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with China (2021).
In July 2025, he met Vladimir Putin in Moscow for high-level security talks and also held meetings in Baghdad and Beirut with regional leaders.
Last August, Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian appointed Larijani to helm the SNSC placing him at the centre of Tehran's defence and regional strategy.
Dr Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told Newsweek at the time: “His selection signals a shift toward a more unifying, experienced regime insider capable of managing both domestic political tensions and sensitive regional diplomacy. Larijani's track record as parliament speaker and nuclear negotiator suggests Tehran may seek a more calibrated security and foreign policy approach.”
The Man Running Crisis Management
According to the NYT report, Larijani's influence has, in some instances, eclipsed that of President Pezeshkian.
In January, amid nationwide anti-regime protests, US envoy to West Asia Steve Witkoff reportedly attempted to contact Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. Two senior Iranian officials and a former diplomat told NYT that Araghchi sought guidance from Pezeshkian who directed him to get approval from Larijani instead.
The episode underscored Larijani's growing role in governance and foreign policy decision-making.
He is also overseeing Tehran's nuclear negotiations with Washington. Iran and the US are scheduled to hold a third round of talks in Geneva on February 26, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi announced.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned that “really bad things will happen” if no deal is reached over Tehran's nuclear programme.
Is Larijani Khamenei's Successor?
Larijani is not formally designated as Khamenei's successor as Supreme Leader. However, he is part of a tight inner circle entrusted with safeguarding the regime's continuity.
According to NYT, Khamenei has established a four-layer succession plan for each major military and governmental role under his authority. Senior officials have reportedly been instructed to name up to four replacements for key posts.
If communication with Khamenei is severed or he is killed, decision-making powers would pass to a small group of confidants including Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, Cleric Ali Asghar Hejazi and Ali Larijani
Three officials told NYT that Larijani tops the list of those who would run Iran if Khamenei and other top officials were eliminated.
Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, told NYT:
“Khamenei is dealing with the reality in front of him. He is expecting to be a martyr and thinking, this is my system and legacy, and I will stand until the end. He is distributing power and preparing the state for the next big thing, both succession and war, aware that succession may come as a consequence of war.”
Preparing For War?
The contingency planning intensified after what Tehran views as lessons from Israel's surprise strike in June that wiped out senior Iranian military leadership.
If conflict erupts, special police units, intelligence operatives and battalions of the plainclothes Basij militia, a subsidiary of the Revolutionary Guards would reportedly be deployed across major cities to prevent unrest and hunt suspected foreign operatives.
Larijani, speaking to Al Jazeera during a visit to Doha this month, signalled Tehran's posture: “We are ready in our country. We are definitely more powerful than before. We have prepared in the past seven, eight months. We found our weaknesses and fixed them. We are not looking for war, and we won't start the war. But if they force it on us, we will respond.”
Why It Matters
With US military presence expanding in West Asia and nuclear diplomacy hanging in the balance, Larijani has emerged as the man at the centre of Iran's war-room calculations. While not the heir apparent to Khamenei's supreme authority, he is increasingly seen as the regime's crisis manager, the insider tasked with steering the Islamic Republic through what could be its most dangerous confrontation in years.
Also Read: Trump Says Considering 'Limited Military Strike' On Iran After Warning Of 'Bad Things'
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