Muslims across the world are awaiting confirmation of the Ramadan crescent — but astronomical projections suggest Saudi Arabia is unlikely to sight the moon today, making Thursday, February 19, the probable start of fasting in most countries.
The Saudi Supreme Court has called on citizens to look for the crescent on the evening of February 17 (29 Shaaban 1447 AH). However, visibility conditions appear highly unfavourable.
ALSO READ: Track Live Updates On Saudi, UAE Moon Sighting Announcements Here
The Astronomical Constraint
According to Crescent Moon Watch, operated by the UK's Nautical Almanac Office, the astronomical new moon will be born at 3:01 pm Mecca time (12:01 GMT) on February 17.
That leaves the crescent extremely young at sunset — and critically, it will set just minutes after the sun.
In Saudi Arabia this evening, the moon is expected to set almost immediately after sunset — far short of the visibility threshold. With minimal angular separation and insufficient lag time, experts say naked-eye sighting would be nearly impossible.
If the crescent is not seen, Shaaban will complete 30 days and Ramadan will begin on February 19.
UAE Observatory Signals Low Probability
In the UAE, the International Astronomy Center confirmed that the final crescent of Shaaban 1447 AH was photographed from Abu Dhabi earlier this week as part of scientific calibration efforts.
However, that image was taken prior to conjunction and does not indicate visible Ramadan crescent conditions.
Ibrahim Al Jarwan, chairman of the Emirates Astronomical Society, said the Ramadan crescent is expected to be born at 4:01 pm local time on Tuesday but will likely set just one minute after sunset — rendering naked-eye visibility highly improbable.
The UAE Council for Fatwa has convened a moon-sighting committee at Qasr Al Hosn, where observatory findings and public testimonies will be reviewed after Maghrib prayers before an official announcement.
Global Declarations Already Lean Toward February 19
While Saudi Arabia and the UAE await formal confirmation, several countries have already declared Thursday, February 19, 2026, as the first day of Ramadan based on astronomical calculations.
A report in Khaleej Times informed that Oman became the first GCC nation to confirm a Thursday start, citing scientific certainty that the crescent would set at or before sunset on Tuesday.
Türkiye, Singapore and Australia have also confirmed February 19. In Europe, the French Council of the Muslim Faith has aligned with scientific visibility projections.
In North America, organisations that follow astronomical calculations — including the Fiqh Council of North America (FCNA) and the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) — have announced a February 18 start, reflecting differing jurisprudential approaches.
India and Pakistan are also widely expected to begin fasting on February 19, subject to local moon-sighting confirmations.
Why The Decision Matters
Saudi Arabia's announcement often shapes Ramadan's start date across much of the Middle East and parts of Africa. A confirmed non-sighting today would align most of the Muslim world on a February 19 start.
However, observers note that the Umm al-Qura calendar lists February 18 as a provisional date — leaving room for divergence depending on official testimonies.
For now, all eyes remain on Saudi Arabia's official announcement this evening — but based on current astronomical parameters, a February 19 start appears the most probable outcome.
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