Even as Washington and Tehran move toward formally signing a framework agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, US intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran now possesses the capability to disrupt the strategic waterway whenever it chooses, CNN reported citing sources familiar with the assessments.
The findings suggest that the recent conflict has fundamentally altered the balance of power in one of the world's most important energy corridors, giving Tehran a potent tool to influence global trade and energy markets.
"We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke," one source familiar with the US intelligence assessments told CNN.
According to the report, US officials believe Iran demonstrated during the conflict that it can effectively halt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and may be willing to employ similar tactics again if tensions escalate.
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The assessments also indicate that Tehran has gained confidence in its ability to conduct targeted strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, creating additional leverage over regional and global energy supplies.
A senior US official told CNN that Iran will only gain access to the benefits of the framework agreement if the Strait of Hormuz remains open and Tehran complies with other commitments under the deal.
"If Iran performs, the relief follows and American leverage holds the entire way," the official said, referring to a phased rollback of US restrictions linked to the restoration of maritime traffic.
However, another source familiar with the agreement acknowledged that while Iran's actions disrupted energy flows through the strait, they also generated friction with key partners, including China and Gulf states.
"Iran pays a price when they do this," the source said, noting that any future attempt to close the waterway would come with significant economic and diplomatic costs for Tehran.
Shipping executives and maritime experts cited by CNN warned that uncertainty surrounding the agreement could keep vessel traffic below normal levels for weeks or even months. US intelligence officials reportedly believe Iran retains a substantial portion of its military capabilities, including missiles, drones, missile launchers and hundreds of fast-attack boats that can be used to harass commercial shipping or deploy naval mines. The report also said Iran has been rebuilding parts of its military-industrial base more quickly than expected and has resumed drone production.
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Officials are also examining the possibility of international partners helping secure the Strait of Hormuz once maritime traffic resumes, though no concrete arrangement has been announced.
US intelligence assessments have also highlighted concerns that Iran could seek to leverage the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen to threaten the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, another critical global trade route linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
According to sources cited by CNN, Tehran views the Houthis as a potential pressure point should diplomatic efforts with Washington collapse.
"Shutting Bab-el-Mandeb down, combined with shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would completely blow up the global economy," one source said.
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