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Systematix Research Report
Petronet LNG Ltd. reported a strong Ebitda/profit after tax growth of 25%/29% in Q1 FY24. Higher utilisation at Dahej was partially offset by lower trading gains which led to an inline result.
Volume at Dahej increased a healthy 26% QoQ to 217 trillion British thermal units (our estimate: 188 tbtu) while Kochi utilisation remained flattish at 20% and processed 13 tbtu.
Total long-term volume stood at 103 tbtu versus 121 tbtu in Q4 FY23 while tolling volume increased more than double to 123 tbtu from 60 tbtu in the previous quarter.
Calculated trading gains from spot volume declined sharply to just $1/metric million British thermal unit (Rs 130 million) from $6.4/mmbtu last quarter due to a fall in LNG prices.
Dahej's expansion plan from 17.5 mtpa to 22.5 mtpa is on track while GAIL India Ltd. committed to completing the Bangalore-Kochi pipeline by November 2024.
We keep our estimates unchanged and forecast a volume of 837/914 tbtu in FY24E/FY25E versus 704 tbtu in FY23.
We forecast its Ebitda/profit after tax to see a compound annual growth rate of 7%/4% during FY23- FY25E.
We have valued Petronet LNG based on price-to-earning ratio of 10.5 times on FY25E which is the average multiple for the last three years.
We maintain our 'Hold' rating with a revised target price of Rs 245 from earlier Rs 230.
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