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ICICI Direct Report
Multiplex's Q4 was a relatively weak quarter for the box office barring Pathaan, which emerged a blockbuster with ~Rs 500 plus crore, net box office collection.
Thus, PVR Inox (combined entity) is likely to witness ~15% QoQ decline (up 26% YoY) in footfall at 31.8 million. The average ticket price is expected at Rs 239, flat QoQ. Consequently, box office revenues at Rs 636 crore are likely to decline ~13% QoQ (up 28% YoY). Advertisement remains at ~76% of pre-Covid for the company. We expect the company to report excluding-Ind accounting standard Ebitda margins of 3.5% in Q4 FY23 (versus ~14% in Q3 and loss in base quarter). With a decent content line-up ahead, box office collection momentum is a key monitorable ahead.
Another key monitorable is fructification of synergy benefits for PVR Inox (targeting Ebitda levels benefit of Rs 225 crore over 12-18 months).
During Q4 FY23, general entertainment channel broadcasters are expected to witness a weak quarter with YoY ad decline owing to exit of free to air channel by Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd.; weak ad spending by key categories including fast moving consumer good and Zee channels not being present on some cable networks amid New Tariff Order implementation for a couple of weeks in February, 2023 (now resolved).
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