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ICICI Securities Report
India's services exports grew 30.5% YoY in the first 11 months of FY23, easily the fastest growth in over a decade, accelerating from the post-Covid bounce of 21.2% YoY growth in FY22, and exceeding the previous decadal high of 18% in FY19.
Services imports were up 24.6% YoY, so the services trade surplus for April 2022-Feb 2023 widened 38.6% YoY to $133 billion. The goods trade deficit widened sharply in Apr-Sep-22 amid elevated crude oil prices, narrowed slightly in Q3 FY23, and declined by 2.5% YoY in Jan-Feb-23 as exports and imports declined.
The services and incomes surpluses are likely to ensure a current account surplus (0.2% of gross domestic product) in Q4 FY23, reducing the FY23 current account deficit to 2.4% of GDP.
With the crude oil price likely to be 20% YoY lower in H1 FY24, and the services surplus likely to stay strong, the CAD should shrink further to 1.8% in FY24, contributing to macroeconomic stability amid the global turmoil.
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