- India remains a strong long-term investment despite a tough year for its equities, says Peter McGuire
- McGuire is bullish on India’s growth for the decade and possibly the century ahead
- He recommends sectors like infrastructure, health, consumer staples, energy, and telecom
India remains a long-term bet despite a tough year for its equities, according to Peter McGuire, Chief Strategist, Asia at XM.com. Speaking to NDTV Profit, he said he is “very, very bullish” on India, not only for 2027 but “for the decade and really probably the century ahead.” He also recommended that investors “put some gold under the bed.”
His optimism comes as Indian stocks lag well behind global peers. Over the past year, the Nifty 50 has been the second-worst performer among major benchmark indices, ahead of only Indonesia, according to Bloomberg data.
For long-term investors, McGuire would look at infrastructure, health, consumer staples, energy and telecommunications, driven by India's young population and rising consumption.
Gold is one of his top calls. He called the metal “cheap right now,” saying it has “big upside over the next couple of years” and that “gold is the place to be,” both as jewellery and as an investment.
On earnings, the marker expert said India “probably outgrew” itself after several bullish years. Since then, some of the “hot air” has come out of the market, but he said the overall theme remains very strong.
On crude, McGuire said prices depend on how long three geopolitical pressure points last: the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the attacks on Russian refineries, attacks in Saudi Arabia, and tensions between the IRGC and the US. If those ease, he expects crude to fall, which would help economies everywhere by lowering inflation. The risk, he said, is that the situation drags into the second quarter of 2027, with crude stuck around $110 and interest rates rising, acting as “a real handbrake” on the economy.
Looking at the US, McGuire called the Nov. 3 midterm elections “a big judgment day” that will show what US voters are thinking. He ruled out a Fed rate hike in October, saying “there's no way.” Whether one comes in December is “the whole storyline at the moment,” he said, given non-farm payrolls data and very sticky US inflation.
On India-US relations, McGuire described Prime Minister Narendra Modi's relationship with the Trump administration as “very, very solid.” He called Secretary of State Marco Rubio “no lightweight” and said Rubio understands how structurally efficient India's economy is, pointing to its young population, entrepreneurial energy and fast adoption of technology.
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