HCLTech, Wipro Q3 Results Review - HDFC Securities

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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

HCLTech - Relative Strength

HCLTech Ltd. posted strong Q3 performance, supported by a sharp jump in its software business segment (seasonal), growth in services driven by Verizon mega deal ramp-up and ASAP consolidation (full-quarter impact). Importantly, the revised guidance implies a strong exit to FY24E with growth outperformance vs. peers even in FY25E.

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Key positives for HCLTech include-

  1. sustainable recovery in engineering research and development services (scale and differentiation),

  2. steady deal flow (10% growth in new deal total contract value for nine months-FY24 at $7.5 billion which can support incremental $1.4 billion revenue in FY25E) plus strong growth across large client buckets,

  3. uptick in fresher addition and positive headcounts adds (versus decline in peers) and commentary of strong bookings expectation for Q4 indicative of growth momentum in FY25E, and

  4. improvement in recurring revenue profile of Software segment rendering stability and margin upside.

We maintain 'Add' on HCLTech with target price of Rs 1,700 based on 22 times FY26E.

Wipro - Jet lagged on underperformance

Wipro Ltd. delivered in-line revenue and margin performance and guided an improved trajectory for Q4. Notwithstanding the flat revenue guide for Q4 (-1.5% QoQ to +0.5% QoQ), its trajectory is ‘recovering' after a 6% drop in the quarterly revenue rate over the past three quarters.

Despite improved commentary on consulting business (bookings improvement in Capco), Wipro's growth markers remain stressed such as-

  1. deal market-share loss to peers (including smaller peers),

  2. broad-based decline within verticals (only a quarter of the business registering sequential growth), and

  3. steep decline in T5 accounts (reduction in $200 million annual revenue rate over the past year) plus risks of spend rationalisation by large client.

Wipro has focused on driving growth from its partner ecosystem (six largest partners driving ~50% of expansion) and is tackling improvement in operating profile based on changes in the operating structure – portfolio focus in Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, absorbing growth office function within the Strategic Market Units, building Delivery cadre and impetus on training and development.

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Maintain 'Reduce' on Wipro based on 17 times FY26E for a target price of Rs 450.

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