As many regions prepare for rains on April 2 G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, has warned that the developing El Nino conditions this year could negatively impact the monsoon season, particularly in the second half of the season.
Sharma said that historically, El Nino years have not been favourable for the Indian monsoon, with nearly 75% of such years witnessing below-normal rainfall and around 60% associated with drought conditions. He said El Nino is expected to start building up after June, which means it could begin impacting the monsoon season as it progresses. According to him, the first half of the monsoon may be relatively better, but the second half, particularly August and September, is expected to be more erratic. Overall, rainfall is unlikely to be above normal and could end up below normal.
He also noted that weather patterns this year have been unusual. March, which is typically a transition month from winter to spring and marks the beginning of the pre-monsoon heat build-up, behaved differently this year. While the month was overall hotter than normal, the last 10 days saw unusual weather activity, including rainfall and hailstorms in regions that do not usually experience such events, including parts of Gujarat such as Rajkot and cities like Pune. He described these as unusual weather phenomena, noting that temperatures touching 40°C in isolated locations this early in the season is also not typical.
On the heat outlook, Sharma said April is unlikely to see severe heatwave conditions due to expected rainfall activity that could keep temperatures in check across central and northern India. However, he warned that heatwave conditions are likely to intensify in May and June as El Niño conditions begin to build. India is currently in a La Niña phase, which will transition to neutral conditions before moving into El Niño, likely around July, with a peak expected in August.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department has issued a warning for heavy rainfall in parts of several states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana. The weather department said a multi-day wet spell is expected due to an active Western Disturbance affecting northwest India through April 5, with peak activity likely on April 3 and 4.
In Maharashtra, the IMD has forecast isolated light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 30–50 kmph, with gusts reaching up to 60 kmph, over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada between April 1 and April 4. Thundersqualls with wind speeds of 50–60 kmph and gusts up to 70 kmph are likely in parts of Madhya Maharashtra on April 2 and 3, with similar conditions expected in Marathwada. The IMD has also warned of isolated hailstorm activity in Madhya Maharashtra through April 3 and in Marathwada on April 3. Maximum temperatures may rise by 2–3°C initially before gradually falling by 2–4°C over the next few days due to the rainfall activity.
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