India's economic growth has drawn fresh attention after major institutions upgraded their projections, extending a strong post-pandemic run that could surpass the country's previous five-year growth streak, economist Kyunghoon Kim said in a post on X on October 16.
Kim highlighted how India's economy rebounded from a 5.8% contraction during the pandemic to expand 9.7% in 2021, followed by growth exceeding 7% in each of the next four years.
The simple average annual growth rate for 2021-2025 reached 7.83%, marginally below the 7.89% recorded during 2003-2007, according to his calculations.
The latest forecasts suggest the momentum could continue. The International Monetary Fund raised its growth projection for India to 7% for FY27 and FY28, citing resilient domestic demand and robust services activity.
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The World Bank raised its FY27 estimate to 7.1%, while the Asian Development Bank projected growth of 7% in FY27 and 7.1% in FY28.
Kim argued that sustaining growth above 7% over several years is particularly significant because India's economy has expanded substantially since its earlier high-growth phase.
India's gross domestic product stood at slightly over $1 trillion in 2007 and is now approaching $4 trillion, he noted. Consequently, the same growth rate today translates into a much larger absolute increase in economic output.
The longer-term ambition is equally significant. India is projected to become the world's third-largest economy around 2030, although the timeline remains dependent on future growth and changes in other major economies.
The outlook comes against a weaker global backdrop. The IMF projects worldwide economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with geopolitical tensions, elevated energy prices and financial risks clouding the outlook.
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Kim acknowledged that India still faces substantial challenges but said the sustained performance of an economy serving 1.4 billion people deserves attention.
If forecasts hold, India could extend its streak of growth above 7%, reinforcing its position among the fastest-growing major economies.
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