India needs a statistical reforms commission as the nation must address concerns over the credibility of its data that is either delayed, junked or outdated, according to a new paper.
Such a panel can outline the road map for reforms and reassure all stakeholders about the government's seriousness in fixing a major governance deficit, according to the working paper by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and authored by Pramit Bhattacharya.
The country has indefinitely postponed the 2021 census, breaking an uninterrupted run since 1881 for the decennial exercise. The last official consumer expenditure data pertains to 2011–2012, and the 2017–2018 survey was junked citing quality concerns. As such, the consumer price index and official poverty estimates continue to be pegged to outdated data. The results of the latest economic census and several new surveys have been kept under wraps. Some of India's core statistics—such as the index of industrial production and gross domestic product—have been the subject of debate for several years.
Instances of the government's attempts to control data-led narratives have continued, Bhattacharya wrote in the paper, which is part of a research programme jointly managed by the Centre for Policy Research and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
According to 88% of data consumers and 67% of data producers interviewed by the author, India's statistical system faces a crisis today. Without "wholehearted reforms", the quality and credibility of official datasets could decline sharply in the coming years, they said.
All the data consumers surveyed identified growing opacity around datasets as a major challenge, while data producers flagged the lack of an empowered authority to enforce statistical standards.
The statistical system also needs more resources to conduct high-quality surveys and to upgrade its analytical capabilities, some respondents said.
The new commission can outline a road map for reforms and reassure all stakeholders about the government's seriousness in fixing a major governance deficit, wrote Bhattacharya.
What The Commission Should Look Like
The proposed commission, the paper said, needs to address three critical issues not dealt with in previous committee reports on overhauling the system:
The relationship between the producer (the agency collecting data) and the regulator or auditor
The relationship between the producer and other arms of the government
The issue of central government-state government coordination in statistics
The commission needs to revisit bringing the census within the National Statistical Commission's ambit like other large nations, Bhattacharya wrote. India remains an outlier because of an unfortunate colonial legacy, he said.
He suggests two new autonomous statistical authorities: one to produce core statistics and another to regulate core and non-core statistics.
The first regulator will have to depend on the government for day-to-day operations. The second one should not have to rely on the government to finance its activities, said Bhattacharya.
A structure similar to that of the Comptroller and Auditor General of India could work well for the regulator, according to some respondents interviewed by the author. The new regulator should be backed by law, have state and central offices, and release all audit reports publicly so that data users are aware of the limitations and data producers know how to improve them, the paper said.
The new commission must also trace how public funds are being spent on statistical activities across departments and states and provide an indicative assessment of the benefits or losses incurred from such expenditure.
It must prepare a strategy document that would guide the activities of the new statistical authorities, the paper said. This document should be periodically reviewed, it said.
The strategy should focus on four key areas:
Outline a path to improve the accuracy and timeliness of core statistical products produced by the national statistical office.
Outline a path to regulate the production of non-core statistics across ministries and states.
Set up mechanisms to develop effective feedback loops so that the statistical system becomes responsive to the needs of data users.
Outline steps that would foster greater innovation in the statistical system. This would include reforms in HR policies that help ISS officers pursue research projects on critical gaps in the statistical system.
The commission could be headed by an eminent statistician or by a technocrat—such as a former RBI Governor—who is nonpartisan and is perceived as such, Bhattacharya wrote. It should include representatives from state and central governments, economic policymakers, jurists, and representatives of India's growing community of non-official data users, along with data scientists from the private sector.
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.