- Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-war levels
- Total crude and oil product exports are now 15-16 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs said
- Exports remain 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict but above March’s low of 5-6 million barrels
Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war's impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That's still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March, they said.
Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz alone are likely close to US officials' 8 million to 10 million barrel a day estimates, the analysts said.
“The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict,” Goldman said. Higher dark flows could “moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer,” it said.
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How much oil is passing through Hormuz can be difficult to gauge as tankers often turn off their satellite transponders, a practice known as going dark, to avoid detection. About 6 million to 8 million barrels a day of crude is transiting the strait, traders told Bloomberg this week. The exports are helping keep global oil prices — which have dropped to around $89 a barrel from more than $120 in April — in check.
The traders' estimate only covers oil that goes through Hormuz, rather than also including some Saudi exports that go through the Red Sea.
While a lot of oil is getting out of the Persian Gulf, flows of liquefied natural gas and refined fuels are lower. “We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude,” Goldman said.
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
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