NATO Is Preparing To Confront Russia With Limited US Support

A French Cayman helicopter flies low over a lush Transylvanian valley, dropping three soldiers onto the grass. The hills erupt with the boom of Caesar cannons and Leclerc battle tanks under NATO command.

The wargame in November offered a glimpse of the alliance’s likely future as President Donald Trump reduces US deployments in Europe. In the natural defensive line of the Carpathian mountains, a full-brigade level deployment of European soldiers under French command was defending the continent largely without the US. 

The urgency of those preparations will be underlined this week as Washington deepens outreach to Russia with Steve Witkoff's trip to Moscow. As the White House pushes for an end to the war in Ukraine, its threats this month to shut off remaining military support for Kyiv raised the possibility of European powers having to defend Ukraine, and perhaps even the rest of their eastern frontier, with limited US backing.

It’s by no means clear the Europeans would succeed. Romanian and other European officials at the exercise in Cincu, about 260 kilometers (162 miles) north of Bucharest by road, voiced concerns about how long it would take for NATO allies to make it to the front. 

Due to the constraints of transport infrastructure, that could take several weeks, they said — leaving Romania’s land forces to fend off an assault largely alone as reinforcements arrive.

Here on Europe’s eastern flank, the costs of failure can be seen just next door in Ukraine, which is still under assault by Vladimir Putin’s forces. Nightly air raids have killed thousands of civilians and wrecked infrastructure, while Russia’s attacks in the east have turned once-peaceful towns into smoldering ruins.

Meanwhile, Putin’s war is already spilling over the border into Europe in dangerous ways, from drone and missile incursions to cases of sabotage and arson for which politicians blame Moscow.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned on Tuesday that according to Berlin’s intelligence, Russia could be able to attack a NATO member in the next four years.

“Russia is really trying to test how far they can go,” the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, told Bloomberg last week. “What they also try to achieve right now is to sow fear within our societies,” she added.

As Europeans witness their neighbor’s destruction, the US has acted on months of signals that it would reduce its military presence on the continent to focus on Asia, asking its allies in Europe to take care of their own defense.

Romania, which hosts several NATO bases, saw the US troops it hosts reduced from 1,700 to about 1,000, Washington announced late October, with withdrawals also planned from Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary. 

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the move was coordinated with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and allies. 

Officials in Bucharest publicly said they understood US reasoning for the decision. However, in private several said they weren’t happy with it, requesting anonymity to speak on sensitive matters. 

Pete Hegseth at a NATO defense ministers' meeting in Brussels. Behind closed doors, European officials have been fighting hard to convince their US allies not to withdraw forces. Washington has tried to assuage its partners’ fears, saying it won’t leave them out in the cold.

A continent struggling to adapt to a more volatile world may not be swayed by such reassurances, said Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea program at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank. 

“This is the first time in the last 70 years that the Europeans no longer perceive American security guarantees as guarantees,” she said.

As their troops bid farewell to an uncertain continent, US officials have been eager to praise their European allies’ capabilities. 

“This is a perfect example of the Europeans handling things on their own,” said US ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker approvingly after observing the live fire demonstration in Transylvania.

But there’s a catch. The wargame at Cincu focused on land combat, in which NATO’s European members are self-sufficient. Even here, the US was present, offering the airspace control and logistical support in which they’d be essential in any large-scale conflict. 

It’s an example of the burdens facing Europe should it stand alone. When it comes to so-called “strategic enablers” — namely air and missile defense, long-range precision strikes and intelligence — the continent still depends on the Americans.

Logistics are a case in point. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reassured Romania that in the case of an attack, allies would rush to its aid. 

But General Maxime Do Tran, commander of a French armored brigade deployed to Romania, complained about delays in the 10-day voyage to the country. The journey via Greece and Bulgaria involved five planes, 11 trains and around 15 convoys, he said.

Three days could have been saved if his convoy hadn’t needed to stop at borders, said Tran. 

France’s military made similar complaints during the exercises in Cincu three years ago. It’s the kind of delay which triggered the EU to propose slashing more red tape last week in a bid to free up movement of military equipment across the bloc. 

When asked in Cincu how long Romania could hold out before reinforcements arrived, army chief General Gheorghita Vlad said his country would have a similar capacity to Ukraine if attacked. 

To bolster its forces, Romania is using EU funds earmarked to enable the bloc to repel a Russian attack by 2030. 

Romania is the second-largest recipient of the €150 billion ($174 billion) defense loan fund called Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, through which it’s secured €16bn. The initiative has strict “buy European” guardrails allowing members to purchase new military kit, though it’s been marred by disputes over how non-EU nations such as the UK can benefit from it, Bloomberg earlier reported. 

SAFE also allows recipients to revitalize local arms industries — a priority for Bucharest, Romanian officials say. They emphasized that Europe can’t stand alone without its own military technology, a problem which isn’t solved by buying US kit off the shelf. 

Meanwhile, German defense giant Rheinmetall AG is leading a series of multibillion-euro EU-backed investments to build production facilities in Romania and Bulgaria in a bid to plug the continent’s critical shortage of ammunition. 

Until it can rearm, Romania is looking for another ally to put boots on the ground. 

The country’s President Nicusor Dan said talks were ongoing with unnamed allies about a potential replacement of the US troops. The country isn’t trying to reverse the US decision on the withdrawal, Romanian officials said. 

France is now in the spotlight. After years of urging lukewarm Europeans to wean off military dependency on the US, Paris is seeing its predictions come through.

Dan will travel to France in the near future to discuss defense cooperation, including a possible military presence in Romania.

One week later at the Mihail Kogalniceanu airbase, Romanian and American officials and soldiers tried to show a united front by celebrating Thanksgiving together. But their meal was interrupted when the Romanian Defense Minister had to leave early — another drone had breached the country’s airspace.

Standing in a muddy field in Cincu before French-made military equipment, French four-star General Philippe de Montenon said he’s confident Europe could prevail, even without the US on side. 

“The direction of history is a progressive disengagement of the United States from the European continent,” he said.