Silver Rally: How Soon Can The Devil's Metal Hit Rs 2 Lakh-Mark On MCX?

Silver is on track to test the Rs 2 lakh mark in 2026 after delivering one of its most extraordinary yearly performances in 2025, doubling in value driven by powerful catalysts.

According to a report on the hard asset by Kedia Advisories, the metal has surged nearly 20% in just 10 days on the Multi-Commodity Exchange, with July 2026 futures touching Rs 1,84,000 per kg. Global spot prices rallied 21% during the same period.

Analysts point to a decisive cup-and-handle breakout above Rs 1,73,965, signalling sustained bullish momentum supported by strong volumes.

Further, technical indicators reinforce the bullish outlook. The cup-and-handle breakout projects an immediate target of Rs 1,93,800, with an extended objective near Rs 2,06,000 if global conditions align.

Momentum signals, including a MACD positive crossover above the zero line, confirm trend acceleration.

The rally was triggered by multiple high-impact factors. This included the US Geological Survey’s addition of silver to its Critical Minerals List, tariff fears, repeated global short squeezes, and chronic supply tightness across major hubs.

London vault stocks remain strained near 26,254 tonnes despite inflows, while Shanghai inventories hit decade lows, rebounding only marginally according to the report.

COMEX has seen nearly 75 million ounces exit vaults since October, with traders reluctant to ship metal due to tariff-risk premiums. Institutional accumulation, on the other hand, has intensified with the iShares Silver Trust or SLVs adding 324 tonnes this week. This marks the largest inflow since July, pushing SLV holdings to 47.5% of all silver stored in London’s vault network.

This surge shows strong participation from ETFs, hedge funds, and industrial consumers reacting to tightening supply in silver.

Physical tightness remains evident with London vaults under pressure, Shanghai stocks hovering near decade lows, and domestic premiums widening amid global spot–futures spread compression.

Adding to all these factors is the weak US economic data and rising Fed rate-cut expectations that further boosted non-yielding assets like silver, adding fuel to the rally.

The white metal on Tuesday was trading at Rs 1,78,710, close to the record of Rs 1,81,680, according to the rates shared by India Bullion and Jewellers Association. The rates have seen a steep climb through the year, with the pricing starting at Rs 87,610 per kg in January 2025.

The prices had retreated to levels close to Rs 1,43,840 in October this year.