Tariffs Bite As India's Exports To US Plunge 28.5% In Last Five Months: GTRI

India's exports to its largest foreign market, the US, have suffered a sharp reversal due to aggressive tariff hikes, think tank GTRI said in a report on Saturday.

Between May and October 2025, shipments fell 28.5%, from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion, it said.

The decline followed a rapid escalation in US duties that began at 10% on April 2, rose to 25% on August 7, and reached 50% by late August, making Indian goods among the most heavily taxed of any US trading partner, it added.

In comparison, China faced tariffs of about 30%, while Japan dealt with only 15%.

Tariff-exempt items such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products accounted for 40.3% of October exports but still fell 25.8%, from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion in October — a contraction of $881 million, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

It added that products facing uniform global tariffs — mainly iron, steel, aluminum, copper and auto parts — formed just 7.6% of shipments in October.

Exports in this category fell 23.8% between May and October, sliding from $629 million in May to $480 million in October, or about $149 million, it said.

The steepest decline occurred in labour-intensive products where India alone faced 50% tariffs.

These goods, which represented 52.1% of October exports, collapsed 31.2%, falling from $4.78 billion to $3.29 billion — nearly $1.5 billion erased in just five months, it said.

"Smartphones, India's single biggest product line to the US, suffered a 36 per cent decline, sliding from $2.29 billion in May to $1.50 billion in October — a loss of almost $790 million," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

Monthly exports fell consistently from $2 billion in June to $1.52 billion in July, crashed to USD 964.8 million in August, eased further to $884.6 million in September, and finally recovered to $1.5 billion in October, he said.

Pharmaceutical exports, he said, also dipped marginally 1.6%, from $745.6 million to $733.6 million.

Similarly, he said petroleum product shipments declined 15.5%, falling from $291 million in May to $246 million in October.

Further, the report said that labour-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles, garments, chemicals, and seafood recorded a dip in the outbound shipments.

Chemical exports tumbled 38%, declining from $537 million to $333 million.