IndiGo Crisis: Aviation Sector Turnaround Possible But Will Take 3–5 Years, Say Experts

India’s aviation sector may eventually emerge stronger from the ongoing IndiGo disruption, but the road to stability and robust capacity expansion will be long and uneven.

According to industry expert, including Siddharth Verma, Aviation Specialist and Founder of MEHAIR, the structural challenges in Indian aviation will take at least three to five years to correct.

India’s skies are currently dominated by two major airlines, making the system especially vulnerable. “There are two large players, and if one has a problem, it will have an effect across the industry,” Verma said, highlighting the fragility of capacity and connectivity.

He added that most airlines operate at 80–85% load factors throughout the year, indicating chronic under-capacity. This imbalance means any operational crisis, such as IndiGo’s recent rostering and crew-related issues, creates immediate nationwide spill-overs.

Although new airlines are expected to emerge, experts caution that expansion will be gradual. “More airlines will come, but it will be step by step. Investors are not looking at large, aggressive purchases of airlines,” Verma noted.

Instead of top-down, large-fleet players entering overnight, India is more likely to see smaller operators scale up organically. Fleet transitions, such as moving from nine-seater aircraft to 19-seaters, require three to four years of planning, approvals, funding, and operational alignment.

The idea of any airline arriving with 30–40 new aircraft within six months is unrealistic, Verma emphasised. Parking constraints, pilot shortages, panel clearances, and capital intensity mean capacity addition will be slow.

Experts argue it’s not just about more planes, it’s about strengthening the entire aviation ecosystem. India’s next wave of aviation growth will come from smaller cities, not metros.

“As India becomes more mobile, studies show that 300–400 million first-time fliers could be added,” Verma said. Tier-II and tier-III cities, supported by the UDAN scheme, will be central to this expansion, especially as new geographies are opened up and last-mile connectivity improves.

This makes regional airlines a potential “next big player” for domestic aviation.

From a financial standpoint, investor confidence must be restored to bring more players into the market, Vijay Gopalan, CFO of Entellus and former CFO of AirAsia India said. Past failures, several airlines folding under competitive and cost pressure, continue to weigh on new entrants.

He also stressed the need for empowering passengers. “Airlines will pull up their socks when passengers know their rights,” he said, adding that greater awareness would create accountability and service-quality improvements.