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Updated: 06/10/2008 | 06:05 PM IST
Myths and reality in fundamentals
Mandar Jamsandekar
Monday, October 06, 2008 (New Delhi)
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The fundamental analysts have been advocating that though Indian markets have fallen to unimaginable lows, there is no change in our growth story. If you read any report, you will come certainly come across this phrase. 

It’s like you having scored 80 per cent marks in the eight standard and 85 per cent in the ninth so you will be scoring 90 per cent marks in your final year. That is how fundamental analysis goes on. People like it because they are fascinated with this word called fundamentals. Anyone who listens to such a view or reads such a report is completely misguided with this. 

Genuine fundamental analysis not only involves looking at the past but also the future after talking to the management of the company. So in a way you are trying to predict the future based on the views generated after meeting the management along with the past performance. 

We already know that our markets are not mature and people run away on the slightest of mishaps. They run away because they have such misleading advice. Indeed, the persons responsible to see that these markets mature in fact do not want this to happen.  

Now, it is the individual investor’s duty to understand that following such an advice is finally making his pocket cry out for ROI (return on investment) and something which is cheap today can get cheaper in the future.  

There are people who try to do this because their analysis is wrong and the investor gets to know it only after having lost money. 

The charts today are suggesting that there are things which today are not on paper. It could be some kind of losses or other bad things which are not seen in the quarterly earnings reports of these companies.  

Always remember that the stock prices discount things six months before they actually happen. If this is true, then we may soon be reading this in pink papers. Investors need to understand that markets work on a simple logic of demand and supply. Demand comes in on expectation of positive developments and supply comes in on expectation of negative developments. Look at an example like RIL, which falls when the company announces the biggest news of oil and gas find. A news that could be changing the fortunes of the company in the years to come but the price from 2100 falls below 1800 in a week’s time. So now what’s the truth?  

Not only in such a period of time when there is a lot of uncertainty but in all kinds of markets it is better to follow one simple rule – ‘Believe in the chart and the news will eventually follow’.
 

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